Civil Security for Society 2026

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to some or all of the following expected outcomes:

• Police Authorities in Europe are equipped with specialised skills and technologies to counter an increase in illegal activities related to the climate change and the emergence of new (opportunistic) criminal patterns;
• Improved understanding by policymakers of the effects of climate change on law enforcement with a view of developing related effective European policies;
• improved knowledge of the impacts of climate change phenomena on social dynamics which can raise demands from public authorities to keep public order, moving beyond traditional perspectives about crime and terrorism.

Scope:

Global climate change is a megatrend expected to affect our societies over the next decade. As stated in “Germany: National interdisciplinary climate risk assessment”^[1], “We are already living in the climate crisis. This brings substantial security risks at global and national levels. (...) Anyone thinking about security needs to think about climate as well”.

Climate change will affect European law enforcement in various ways ^{[2], [3]}. Notably, it is likely to create new opportunities and resources for organised crime, challenging current security frameworks. One of the expected outcomes of climate change will be the emergence of scarcity markets. Links between resource scarcity propelled by climate change and the crime opportunities for organised crime groups need to be further analysed. Criminal networks will aim to dominate the scarcity markets, increasing their role in the distribution of essential goods and services such as food and water. In addition, criminal networks will facilitate the movement of migrants, including women and children, escaping conflict and the effects of climate change; increased flux of migration due to extreme weather conditions may raise opportunities for human trafficking and exploitation. Furthermore, the decline in biodiversity will translate into more animal species under threat of extinction targeted by wildlife traffickers. In this landscape, the adoption of new technologies will bolster criminal organizations of various kinds. Examples of such crimes, illegal activities, threats and harms connected to climate change include: environmental crimes contributing to climate change (illegal mining and extraction, illegal use of underwater sources and streams, illegal deforestation, illegal waste management), wildlife trafficking and poaching, fraud and financial crimes (greenwashing, carbon credit fraud, misuse of climate funds), exploiting climate change-related disasters (water theft, looting after disasters, land grabbing), or social tensions (new forms of radicalisation and terrorism, increased displacement and migration challenging public order and disproportionately affecting groups in a vulnerable situation).

New approaches centred around crime and climate change, including crime activities’ association with and amplification by climate change, present unique challenges that require thorough investigation and analysis. Recognizing these emerging trends is vital for formulating effective plans and policies, and equipping law enforcement with specialized skills, technology (including forensics) and training necessary to tackle these challenges in an increasingly volatile world.

In this topic, apart from the mandatory participation of Police Authorities in the consortia, active involvement of other security practitioners, such as civil security services, Border Guard or Customs Authorities, is encouraged if relevant. Technological and societal angles should be addressed in a balanced way.

Coordination among the successful proposals from this topic should be envisaged to avoid duplication and to exploit complementarities as well as opportunities for increased impact. Proposals funded under this topic are expected to provide ideas on how they would engage with the Europol Innovation Lab during the lifetime of the project, including validating the outcomes, with the aim of facilitating future uptake of innovations for the law enforcement community. For Police Authorities’ training-related aspects, cooperation of successful proposals with CEPOL is expected, provided that the Agency opts out from applying for funding. Finally, proposals are expected to address all applicable considerations expressed in the Introduction of the Fighting Crime and Terrorism Destination.

This topic requires the effective contribution of Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH) disciplines and the involvement of SSH experts, institutions as well as the inclusion of relevant SSH expertise, in order to produce meaningful and significant effects enhancing the societal impact of the related research activities. Research in this area could be strengthened by considering the gender-specific dimensions of vulnerabilities and needs when relevant.

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[1] https://metis.unibw.de/assets/pdf/National_Interdisciplinary_Climate_Risk_Assessment.pdf

[2] A.Matczak, S.I. Bergh, A review of the (potential) implications of climate change for policing practice worldwide. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, Vol. 17, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paad062

[3] P. Schwartzstein (2024), Climate Change & Crime: A big, bad, largely overlooked nexus. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2024/10/17/climate-change-crime-a-big-bad-largely-overlooked-nexus/