Climate security and civil preparedness – new ways to develop pre- and post-crisis climate-change related scenarios for a more resilient Europe

Expected Outcome:

Project results are expected to contribute to some or all of the following expected outcomes:

• Identification and prioritization of climate security scenarios, assessing cascading and compounding risks across multiple sectors;
• Development and validation of advanced tools, technologies, and data-driven solutions for climate - and environmental - risk forecasting, crisis management, and adaptation, including risk analytical and assessment tools, weather alerts and forecasts;
• Development and validation of advanced tools and technologies to assess and monitor climate-induced disasters, also providing risk information on adaptation and risk reduction measures;
• Strengthened engagement with stakeholders, ensuring end-user involvement in defining requirements, testing, and validation of climate security solutions;
• Development and validation of new risk-management tools, technologies and data, closer to operational environment. Focus on local and regional risk-management and climate adaptation work should be prioritized;
• Pre-crisis analysis and post-crisis situational awareness in case of those disasters related to climate change (floods, fires, landslides, heat waves, etc.);
• Enhanced international cooperation, policy integration, and public awareness to improve climate security resilience and preparedness. Strengthen networks to exchange best practices and support the international dimension of the Preparedness Union Strategy and the Sendai Disaster Risk Reduction Framework.

Scope:

Climate change is a global challenge with profound security implications at the global, regional, and local levels. It exacerbates risks across multiple sectors, including agriculture, biodiversity, health, border security, economy, financial stability, transport, telecommunication and human displacement, leading to severe socio-economic consequences and destabilizing communities. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters highlight the urgent need for a holistic, long-term strategy to address climate security, integrating risk assessment, crisis management, and adaptation measures, while also leveraging the expertise of the insurance sector.

While climate services based on data analysis have reached a high level of trust among users, their application to civil security remains underdeveloped. Proposals should aim to develop methodologies, tools, and technologies that enhance situational awareness both before a crisis (pre-crisis) and after a crisis (post-crisis), enabling decision-makers and populations to respond effectively. Research should focus on defining priority climate security scenarios in the EU, identifying key stakeholders, and establishing essential indicators for informed decision-making.

Efforts should be directed toward understanding and mitigating the impacts of floods, landslides, wildfires, and other climate-induced disasters. This includes developing improved methods and models for risk prevention and reduction, early detection, emergency response tactics, and rescue efforts under extreme conditions. The study of cascading effects and compounding disasters is critical, particularly regarding groups in a vulnerable situation such as older people, people with disabilities, and children. In this view, the proposals should build on the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA^[1]) and consolidated national risk assessments^[2] as well as find synergies with project’s chosen for the similar EU Mission: Adaptation to Climate Change topic^[3]. Both the European Preparedness Union Strategy, the European Water Resilience Strategy and the upcoming European Climate Adaptation Plan act as policy guidance.

Diverse climate and environmental security scenarios should be developed, supported by innovative, reliable tools that leverage multiple data sources, enabling a comprehensive and adaptive response. Proposals should also integrate space programme components such as Copernicus and Galileo to improve data accuracy and crisis response capabilities. A strong emphasis on international cooperation should foster knowledge exchange, enhance policy integration, and share best practices. Proposals should support transnational collaboration within the EU, facilitate improved data-sharing mechanisms, and align with global initiatives such as the Sendai Disaster Risk Reduction Framework. Capacity-building efforts to strengthen resilience to climate-related security threats and ensure a coordinated approach to addressing worst-case climate scenarios, as identified in the Niinistö report^[4].

Projects may take into account the assets but also particular challenges faced by the European outermost regions and may include entities from these regions in the consortium’s composition.

Where applicable, proposals should leverage the data and services available through European Research Infrastructures federated under the European Open Science Cloud, Copernicus, Destination Earth, as well as data from relevant Data Spaces. Particular efforts should be made to ensure that the data produced in the context of this topic is FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Re-usable).

Where relevant, funded projects are encouraged to liaise with the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, for complementary real-scale testing at the Reaction Wall and HopLab of the European Laboratory for Structural Assessment (ELSA).

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[1] https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/european-climate-risk-assessment

[2] COM/2024/130 final, Preventing and managing disaster risk in Europe, https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52024DC0130

[3] HORIZON-MISS-2026-01-CLIMA-04: Bridging the gap between disaster risk management and climate adaptation

[4] https://commission.europa.eu/topics/defence/safer-together-path-towards-fully-prepared-union_en