Generic simulation models for climate suitability analysis of new and emerging plant pests

Objective:

Only competent organisations, based on designations by Member States, are eligible to apply to the call.

Scope:

In the context of this call, process-based models refer to simplified mechanistic models that estimate the environmental suitability for the growth, development, and persistence of plant pest and diseases. These models do not simulate or quantify explicitly population abundance but instead assess how favourable environmental conditions are for the establishment of the species.

Such models typically use climate-based thresholds or continuous response functions to represent the effects of temperature, moisture, or other abiotic factors on species-specific processes such as development rates, survival during adverse conditions (e.g., overwintering), or phenological development. The outputs often combine multiple suitability components to indicate overall potential for pest or pathogen presence or activity under given climatic conditions.

This lot include also the development and testing of solutions for running Species Distribution Models (SDMs) informed by process-based models and/or by indices derived from the organism’s physiology.